Really, is the recovery here? Really?
That seems to be the question everyone is asking. One day we hear that retail sales are up and the next we hear that home sales are down. So is the recovery here? Really?
I have to admit that I am just as confused about the economy as the next person. I do believe the recession is over but can we really call it a recovery when we have double digit unemployment and millions of homes on the verge of foreclosure? I read the other day that a majority of economists think the economy is headed in the right direct but that does not give me much comfort so I look for my leading indicators:
1. Traffic - the traffic in Raleigh at rush hour is still much lighter than it was a few years ago but heavier than it was 12 months ago. Positive
2. Shopping - the last time I was at the mall it was not crowded at all but when I went to Wal Mart and Dollar Tree it was packed. I heard Crammer (Mad Money) say that people shop at dollar stores because they are hunting for bargains not because they enjoy shopping (we do that more at malls). Negative
3. Charities - I was amazed to see how much money was raised for Haiti and there are indications that charitable gifts are on the rise after two years of decline. Since donations to charitable organizations are purely discretionary this is a good sign. Positive
So there you have it. The recovery is here, but just barely based on my top three leading indicators. The recovery is here, really. Now, when will we see wages rise and employment improve? Your guess is as good as mine.